Research Proposal: The Disruptive Impact of AI on Future Conflicts

(Also adapted from: Danks, D. & Roff, H., 2016. Automated and Autonomous Conflicts: AI, Ethics, and the Conduct of Hostilities — IACAP Symposium. International Association for Computing And Philosophy)

Collaborators

• David Danks, Professor of Philosophy and Psychology, Head, Department of Philosophy, Carnegie-Mellon University

Summary

1. There have been numerous debates in academia, government, and the public sphere over the value and desirability of increasingly autonomous technologies
   • much of this debate has focused on their moral or legal permissibility
2. Conflicts take place in the physical and electronic domains
   • eg weapons systems, targeting, command & control; cybersecurity; surveillance; and cybercrime
3. According to the Talinn Manual, “Existing legal interpretations leaves state behaviour in cyberspace susceptible to both over- and underreaction in the event of cyber conflict”
4. AI can fundamentally transform the conduct of warfare and other conflicts
   • AI, unlike other technology, may change the very rules, norms, and practices of conflict
5. Yet very little was done to explore the impact of AI on future conflicts

Questions

1. What are the (possibly novel) moral challenges and broader moral implications of increasingly automated and autonomous systems that rely on AI?
2. Will AI increase the likelihood of an unintentional escalation or reduce it?
3. What are the risks of a global AI Arms Race (Istvan 2015)?
4. How the law of state responsibility applies to the use of proxies in cyber operations?

Literature

• Atkinson, D.J., 2015. “Emerging Cyber-Security Issues of Autonomy and the Psychopathology of Intelligent Machines“. In AAAI Foundations of Autonomy and Its (Cyber) Threats. Palo Alto, CA (Spring 2015).
• Grace, K., 2015. The Asilomar Conference: A Case Study in Risk Mitigation, Berkeley, CA: Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
• Human Rights Watch, 2015. Mind the Gap: The Lack of Accountability for Killer Robots.
• Istvan, Z., 2015. A Global Arms Race to Create a Superintelligent AI is Looming. Motherboard
• Sanger, D.E., 2015. U.S. and China Seek Arms Deal for Cyberspace. The New York Times.
• Scharre, P., 2014. Robotics on the Battlefield Part II: The Coming Swarm, Center for a New American Security.
• Scherer, M.U., 2015. Regulating Artificial Intelligence Systems: Risks, Challenges, Competencies, and Strategies, Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network.
• Singer, P.W. & Cole, A., 2015. Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War, Boston: Eamon Dolan/Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
• Slate, 2016. A Brief Guide to the Weapons of Cyberconflict.